We used the StatGeek Analytics Model to predict all 63 games in the 2019 NCAA D3 Men’s Tournament. The model is based on about a decade’s worth of data including data from this past season to determine who is most likely to win a match-up between any two teams. (Try it yourself for free at StatGeekAnalytics.com)
How About Some Upsets?
We’ve got plenty early on including Penn State-Behrend over Hamilton and Farmingdale State over Rochester. In fact, our model sees Penn State-Behrend as slight favorites in their subsequent match-ups until the sectional finals.
The Biggest Coin Flip
We have Marietta getting to their sectional final but with just slightly better than a coin flip’s chance of winning their first three games. So, best of luck to the Pioneers.
Who survives this weekend?
Next weekend we’ve got Whitman vs Williams, Christopher Newport vs Penn State Behrend, Amherst vs Nichols, Swarthmore vs Randolph-Macon, Nebraska Wesleyan vs Wittenberg, St. John’s (MN) vs North Central, Augustana vs Wooster and Marietta vs Oswego State.
Who wins it all?
We see the defending champions, Nebraska Wesleyan, who we had pegged early on last year getting knocked off by St. John’s (MN) in the sectional finals. Joining the Johnnies in Fort Wayne, we see Whitman, Randolph-Macon and Augustana. With the Whitman Blues winning it all this year to conclude a near perfect season.