2019 D3 NCAA Tournament Sectional Preview

Overall, StatGeek did pretty well on both the men’s and women’s side of the NCAA D3 Tournament, above 70% on the men’s side and over 80% on the women’s side.  We did lose two of our final four teams on the women’s side, Hope and Trine, and one of our finalists on the men’s side, St. John’s.

Looking ahead to the sectional round, we’ll pick the current match-ups rather than look at our previous ones.

Men’s Sectional Preview

On the men’s side, the final four hasn’t changed.  Our model still has Whitman, Randolph-Macon and Augustana going through.  Obviously with St. John’s out, we need one new entrant and that honor goes to UW-Oshkosh.  We see a St. Thomas v Oshkosh sectional final with a narrow edge going to the Titans (although the Tommies are a StatGeek client, so we’re definitely rooting for them).

Randolph-Macon’s two wins last weekend now gives them an edge in our model over Whitman – in other words, this should be a fantastic game if it comes to pass.  But right now we’ve got the Randolph-Macon beating Augustana for the national title.

Women’s Sectional Preview

On the women’s side, there’s no change to our original prediction of the national title game, Tufts vs DeSales with Tufts winning it all.  We actually have Transylvania and Wartburg going to the Final Four.  Our model doesn’t like Thomas More for some reason and keeps predicting them to get knocked out, something we may have to look into in the off-season because they certainly pass the eye test.  Also, DeSales is just a narrow favorite over Wartburg in that Final Four match-up.  Wartburg would have to knock out Amherst to get there and I would imagine our model will switch the result of that game against DeSales if Wartburg does get past the defending champs.

We still see three NESCAC teams in the final eight and wouldn’t be surprised if all three kept going.  As a a former assistant at Colby, I know how tough that league is and they continue to prove that on a national stage.

Good luck to everyone this weekend and check out all the stats on these match-ups at StatGeekAnalytics.com!  It’s FREE!

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